Singapore’s economy could outpace the government’s 2026 growth forecast range of 4.5% to 5.5%, as strong electronics exports and construction activity lifted growth to an average of about 6% over the first three quarters, according to eToro.
Zavier Wong, market analyst at eToro, said that for full-year growth to stay within the official range, fourth-quarter growth would have to stall completely, which he considers unlikely. He expects the Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry to raise its 2026 GDP forecast next month.
His assessment follows third-quarter GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year, easing from an upwardly revised 6.2% in the second quarter.
MAS sees steady expansion
In its October Macroeconomic Review, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said the economy is expected to keep expanding steadily in the coming quarters, with the artificial intelligence-led expansion remaining relatively well-anchored into 2027.
UOB lifts forecast to 5.7%
United Overseas Bank (UOB) raised its full-year growth forecast to 5.7% from 5.0%, citing upward revisions to first-half growth and a stronger-than-expected third quarter.
The bank said wholesale and retail trade, together with transportation and storage, grew 2.2% quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with flat growth in the second quarter. It attributed part of the improvement to stronger wholesale trade in machinery, equipment and supplies, supported by AI-related demand.
Construction rebounded 3.4% quarter-on-quarter, reversing a 2.7% contraction in the second quarter, while manufacturing slipped 0.9% after expanding 6.3%.
UOB expects growth to moderate to 3.2% in 2027 on higher comparison bases and an anticipated slowdown in AI-related investment. It also warned that higher global interest rates could weigh on consumption and non-AI investment in Singapore’s major trading partners, potentially hurting external demand.
RHB holds at 5.0%, sees upside
RHB kept its 2026 growth forecast at 5.0%, with upside risks towards 5.4%. It expects electronics and precision engineering to keep supporting manufacturing for the rest of the year, driven by demand for AI infrastructure and semiconductors. Electronics output has grown 27.1% year-to-date, while precision engineering has expanded 16.3%.
The bank highlighted construction as the fastest-growing sector in the third quarter, and expects major infrastructure projects, including Changi Airport Terminal 5, Cross Island Line Phase 2 and Tuas Port, to sustain activity. It maintained its industrial production and non-oil domestic export growth forecasts at 9.0% and 15.5% respectively.
Uneven growth
Wong cautioned that growth remains uneven, with most gains coming from electronics exports and construction rather than household spending, noting that most households are not seeing the growth reflected in their wallets.
RHB similarly warned that weaker wage growth, cautious hiring and higher transport costs could weigh on discretionary spending and retail activity in the second half. It also flagged uncertainty over US tariffs and a potential slowdown in AI-related investment as risks to Singapore’s manufacturing and export outlook.
